Coaches love to break the season into quarters. It provides an easy analogy, because like a game, getting in an early hole can be hard to overcome, while jumping on an opponent early can provide momentum down the stretch.
So as we move toward the start of the 2010 NFL season, we consider the league’s 32 teams and the quarters that could define success or failure in 2010:
First Quarter
Buffalo: The fans in western New York have spent the last ten years disappointed. The Chan Gailey hire certainly did not lift the decade depression. Consider a first four that includes trips to Green Bay and New England as well as Miami and the Jets. 0-4, a real possibility, would only heighten the pain.
Cleveland: Everyone is watching Eric Mangini to see if he can play nice with one of the most respected coaches of the last three decades in an office down the hall. The Browns have two very winnable games to begin the season: at Tampa and Kansas City. They are not gimmes, but they have a reasonable chance and Mangini needs them. Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New England follow in the season’s second quarter – four games that could lead to “Be Like Mike” calls along Lake Erie.
Houston: No team teases like the Texans. Houston gets to come right out of the gates with a game that could set the course for a playoff season: Indianapolis at Reliant Stadium. Two weeks later, the Cowboys travel east to Reliant Stadium. Arguably, these two games could define the Texans 2010 season – they are among the toughest. Visits to Washington and Oakland are also in the first four – two teams that are much improved. Tease us or tempt us into believing?
Jacksonville: Dark clouds float to the west of the Florida panhandle moving toward Jacksonville. Jack Del Rio’s future. Growing skepticism about David Garrard. A fatalistic feeling that nothing can be done to grow the fan base. Three home games with Denver, Philly and Indianapolis and a road trip to San Diego could bring those clouds raining down over Jacksonville.
New York Jets: Are they truly the team to beat in the AFC? With Baltimore and New England at their new stadium to open the season and road trips to Miami and Buffalo the following two weeks, they can, at the very least, put themselves in place to be the team to beat in the AFC East. Win all four and we’re listening to a lot of Rex Ryan boasts as October arrives.
Pittsburgh: The Big Ben suspension makes this one obvious. Byron Leftwich must lead his team against Atlanta, Tennessee and Baltimore among the first four, two teams that had a chance at the playoffs and one that made a statement with a huge playoff win. The Steelers could win all three (and a fourth game against Tampa). Anything 2-2 or better should be considered a win.
Tennessee: The Chris Johnson holdout, the Gerald McGrath suspension, and the lack of a true winner for the starting cornerback spot opposite Cortland Finnegan give the Titans many questions to start the season. On the schedule card, the first four are winnable games. Can they answer the questions well enough to get on an early roll? That will define the 2010 Titans season.
Second Quarter
Cincinnati: The Bengals are a team that historically loses games that make no sense. As a first-place team from 2009, the Bengals do not have mulligans to spare. That means taking games against Carolina and Cleveland in the season’s first quarter and Tampa in the second quarter of the season. The Bengals must stockpile wins as the fourth quarter arrives with games at Pittsburgh and Baltimore as well as home games versus Cleveland and San Diego.
New England: Amazing how one game can turn the tide on a proud franchise. The Patriots’ abysmal performance in the playoff loss to Baltimore has certainly taken all the sheen off the former big dogs. The first quarter of this season will be huge – as we see if that Ravens loss lingers – against three teams that improved this off-season: the Bengals, Jets and Dolphins. If the Patriots are teetering, the second quarter could end it. After the bye, they play Baltimore, at San Diego and Minnesota before visiting Cleveland.
Third Quarter
Baltimore: The 9-7 Ravens have new pieces in place that should make their offense more explosive, taking some of the weight off an aging defense. Five of their first eight games come against teams with a real chance to make noise in the AFC. If they can weather that storm, the Ravens begin the third quarter of the season against the NFC South: road trips to Atlanta and Carolina and a home game against Tampa. Get through September and October even or better and the Ravens could use November to get on a roll.
Denver: Few expect the Broncos to contend in the AFC West. Many expect Josh McDaniels to be fighting for his job. In that vein, consider the season’s third quarter: two games with the Chiefs, the Rams and a visit to San Diego. If the Broncos begin their typical November swoon against Kansas City and St Louis, both expectations could come to pass.
Indianapolis: Many wonder about the emotional toll the Super Bowl loss tot the Saints and the subsequent criticism will have on Indianapolis. Probably an overblown topic of discussion unless the Colts come out of the blocks 0-2 against a very good Texans team and a Giants team that fell apart last year because of injuries and defensive discord. It is the third quarter that will tell us if Manning and company are up to another run: Cincinnati, at New England, San Diego and Dallas. That is a playoff-like stretch.
San Diego: The league’s schedule makers seem hell bent on reversing the Chargers recent trends of slow starts. San Diego could start 4-0 with Kansas City, Jacksonville, Seattle and Arizona in the first four. The third quarter will tell us how good the Chargers really are: Houston, Denver, Indianapolis and Oakland should set the Chargers up well for another late season run.
Fourth Quarter
Kansas City: The Chiefs are getting better. Even if you wonder about the coach’s ability to lead or the quarterback’s ability to be a true NFL starter, you understand how building blocks like Jamaal Charles, Tamba Hali and Eric Berry can help the Chiefs grow into contenders. Kansas City has a workable schedule in 2010, a fourth place schedule that includes the struggling NFC West. Get to the fourth quarter in the range of .500 and Kansas City could set itself up for 2011 with a strong finish against a schedule that includes San Diego, St Louis, Tennessee, and Oakland.
Miami: All any coach can ask for is the chance to win it at the end and the Dolphins will have the chance. Want to be in the AFC East playoff hunt? Be ready to win it when it counts: at the Jets and Patriots in the final four weeks of the season. Home games with Buffalo and Detroit.
Oakland: You just want to believe the Raiders will be better. Then, you consider what goes on behind the scenes in Al Davis’ offices and you cannot make yourself believe. One would guess the fourth quarter would be the most important for the Raiders – giving us a knowledge of which way they would go in the off-season. Jacksonville, Denver, Indianapolis and Kansas City provide three good chances to build momentum. But..this is Oakland….
